A general overview of the intersection of homicide and race…according to the CDC
Looking at the CDC’s 2023 provisional data and sorting homicide victims by race reveals a startling picture. While non-Hispanic white and Asian Americans have overall homicide rates of 2.8 per 100,000 and 1.7 per 100,000 respectively, black Americans are at 28.6 per 100,000. That’s significantly higher than other groups as well, including white Hispanics (7.1 per 100,000), and native Americans (13.6 per 100,000).
Comparing these rates internationally, it’s as if white and Asian Americans are living in Eastern Europe, while black Americans are living in a long-troubled narco-state like Honduras.
It’s also important to note here that while the CDC gives us only victim data and not offender data, the overwhelming majority of homicide is intra-racial. That is, homicides are usually committed by someone of the same race as the victim.
For instance, in 2018, the Federal Bureau of Investigation reported that 81% of white victims were killed by white offenders, and 89% of black victims were killed by black offenders. For the purposes of this discussion, then, it’s safe to assume that a given homicide victim was killed by someone of their own race, and therefore to use the race of the victim as a proxy for the race of the likely offender.
Gun-related homicide follows a similar pattern as general homicide, and that applies at the state level too.
Narrowing the focus down to gun-related homicide specifically, the CDC tells us that black Americans were killed using guns at a rate of 24.6 per 100,000 in 2023, compared to just 1.8 per 100,000 for white Americans and 1.0 per 100,000 for Asian Americans.
Frankly, any discussion of gun-related violent crime that doesn’t put the plight of the black community front and center is a fundamentally ignorant or dishonest discussion. The fact of the matter is, for most Americans, there is just not a very high threat of being killed by a gun-wielding criminal. But for black Americans, it’s a very real threat. This is despite the fact that white Americans are by far the most likely to personally own a gun, with their rate of gun ownership being about 50% higher than that of blacks.
This isn’t only seen on a national level. Within states, the disparity can be just as dramatic. For example, Louisiana frequently tops the chart for homicide (and gun-related homicide), leading it to be a regular target of derision by gun control groups. Yet for the majority of the state’s residents, who are white, gun-related homicide isn’t a major threat.
Of the state’s 2,652,879 white residents, 89 were killed in a gun-related homicide in 2023, a rate of 3.4 per 100,000. But black residents, a population 1,477,731, suffered 626 gun-related homicides. A shocking rate of 42.4 per 100,000, or roughly twelve times higher than that of white Louisianans.
In essence, the south’s generally much higher homicide rates are not due to the region’s generally permissive gun laws, but rather because southern states tend to have far more black residents, the demographic that suffers (and inflicts) the most homicides per capita. This is why Louisiana and Idaho can have similarly permissive gun laws, but dramatically different homicide rates. Or on the flip side, why Maryland and Massachusetts can have similarly strict gun laws, but again, find themselves on the opposite ends of the homicide rate spectrum.
Sometimes the comparison is even more stark. Texas is right next to Louisiana and is also a pro-gun state, but has a much lower gun-related homicide rate, as the map below demonstrates.
Digging deeper to better identify the challenge.
Believe it or not, the numbers get even more shocking from here. It isn’t as if all black men and women of every age suffer equally high gun-related homicide rates. While black women are homicide victims at higher rates than women of other races, they are below that of black men by a very wide margin.
So if we’re going to begin to solve this problem, the focus must be on black men. But even that isn’t specific enough. We need to identify the exact age groups where the problem arises most. When we drill down even further, we see perhaps the most shocking statistic of all: black men (some of them still teenage boys) in the 15 to 24 age group, have a gun-related homicide rate of 100 per 100,000 in 2023. In other words, if you are a 15 to 24-year-old black male, you had a 1 in 1,000 chance of being killed in a gun-related homicide in 2023.
To be sure, all young males tend to be more violent than older men (and women). But there simply is no comparison racially…white Americans in the 15 to 24-year-old age group have a gun-related homicide rate of 3.4 per 100,000, with Asian American males a bit below that. That’s more than an order of magnitude lower than the rate of black men and boys. And while Hispanic American men also have an elevated rate of gun-related homicide at 18.3 per 100,000, it’s still more than five times lower that of their black counterparts.
In sum, if we are ever going to significantly reduce America’s homicide rate, the solutions have to focus heavily — perhaps almost exclusively — on treating the violence crisis faced by young black males. Anyone who dodges this problem or pretends this is about “general” gun violence, doesn’t comprehend the scope of the disparity.
That, or they’re trying to mislead you.
How debate on this issue is toxically shut down
Given this problem is so critical and so clearly focused, why is it so hard for anyone who isn’t a black American to talk about it? I speak from experience on this, as I find myself taking a deep breath before I ever attempt to contribute to this discussion, asking myself whether I really want to dive into these perilous waters. So for this section of the article, I will shift away from statistics and provide my own personal experience and opinions.
In my view, there are two main types of people who seek to shut down this debate:
The first group is comprised of those who are openly racist against blacks. You will likely see some examples (but hopefully not too many) in the comments below. This group loves the confirmation of their prejudices that the homicide data provides them, arguing as they do that black Americans are allegedly inferior and irredeemably more violent by their very nature.
They have turned these statistics into a meme of sorts, such as “13/52” or “13 does 52” (a reference to the fact that blacks make up roughly 13% of the U.S. population, but are responsible for committing over half of all homicides). They don’t care that even with elevated homicide rates, the overwhelming majority of black Americans obviously aren’t violent killers and just want to live in peace like the rest of us.
While one option is to just ignore them, the problem is that the racist contingent has so overtaken this topic that it has “poisoned the well” for serious discussion focused on identifying the particular issues and solutions. When you raise this topic at all you often get called racist regardless of your good intentions, thanks to the damage the racist contingent has done to the discussion. This has happened to me more than once (and may again in the comments or quote-tweets for this article).
The second group are people who reflexively call anyone who raises this topic “racist” in order to shut down any discussion of it. Undoubtedly, some of the people who react that way are understandably upset by the racist contingent (above) and assume everyone who raises similar-sounding talking points is also just being racist. Theirs is an emotional response, but not a malicious one.
But another sub-group is far more nefarious. They shut down the debate by calling you racist because the discussion hurts their political agenda.
It’s no secret that when it comes to the most violent cities in America, there is something else they frequently have in common besides large black populations. They are almost exclusively run by the Democrat party and have been for many decades. Baltimore. St. Louis. Philadelphia. Kansas City. New Orleans. Chicago. The list goes on and on, and you will be hard-pressed to find a Republican mayor among the lot of them.
The sky-high homicide rates suffered by black Americans are an indictment of the failed leadership of Democrats who have had full control of our most problematic cities for generations. This is a massive point of insecurity for their partisan supporters, so the best way to deal with such a damning debate is to shut it down immediately by labeling anyone who talks about it as racist.
Similarly, gun control advocates also want to stifle this discussion because it obliterates their core argument. If the gun-related homicide problem is correlated heavily with race – but not with the degree or number of gun laws in a state – then gun control is demonstrably a colossal failure in stopping homicide. We’ve seen this play out in reality, as no amount of gun control laws that have been passed have solved the homicide problems in Baltimore or Chicago, both of which are in top-rated gun control states. (Maryland is ranked by Everytown as the eighth best state for gun control, Illinois ranked third).
More tragically, their misguided efforts mean that millions of law-abiding black Americans have a much harder time exercising their Second Amendment rights, even though they’re precisely the people most likely to need access to effective armed self-defense in the dangerous cities where they often live.
Solutions
This article is primarily about openly identifying the problem of the racial disparity in gun-related homicide and explaining the reasons why this discussion is so hard to have in a constructive way. I don’t pretend to know what all of the solutions are and it would be arrogant to think I did. The black community will need to be the first to speak up for itself and break the cycle.
But there are some obvious places to start. For one, the black family must be restored. According to the US Department of Justice, black kids are far more likely to be raised by single mothers than children of other races. Despite their best efforts, solo parents often just can’t keep up. It’s hard to make sure your teenage son is staying away from gangs and drugs when you have to work multiple jobs to make ends meet.
Growing up in a two-parent household is correlated with lifetime success in many ways, and one of those is far less exposure to the criminal element. Even in unsafe neighborhoods, children are far safer when they’re raised by both parents, particularly if those parents are married.
Opportunity is also critical. Teenage boys and young men who feel they don’t have a chance to get ahead are understandably more likely to fall into gangs, drugs, and eventually gun-related crime. But our schools in so many predominantly black areas are a national embarrassment. For example, while Chicago schools spend ever-increasing amounts of money, test scores remain dismal.
Considering that some additional money spent comes from the federal government, a federal investigation is warranted to find out how exactly it’s possible for a doubling of spending in the last decade to result in a roughly 70% decline in proficiency. Perhaps it’s the fact that a large share of that money doesn’t ever make it to the students.
As a recent article argued . . .
Here’s one fact Chicagoans should know as the Chicago Teachers Union demands billions more for its massive labor contract: only half of the $10 billion spent at CPS each year makes it to classrooms and instruction. The other $5 billion goes to fund a sprawling bureaucracy of near-empty to half-empty schools, an increasingly bloated administrative staff and ever more debt, driven largely by pensions. All to the union’s benefit.
I don’t mean to pick on Chicago, as these patterns are seen in other cities too. Proper education is one major way to reduce the likelihood of future criminality, as studies have long shown.
To make the dramatic policy shifts necessary, political change is likely needed. Clearly, black Americans being the most-loyal Democrat voters hasn’t resulted in these issues being solved despite having had generations to do so. For anything to change, black voters must be willing to fire failed leadership or we are all just wasting our time.
This last election showed some indications of that beginning to happen, but there’s a long way to go. This doesn’t necessarily mean only Republicans need participate in these efforts. Democrats who are truly willing to buck their party leadership and affiliation in failed cities would be welcome as well.
Conclusion
I hope that in his second term, President Trump treats this problem as the high priority it should be and that state and local leaders will as well. Lives are being cut short at shocking rates, particularly among young black men and I refuse to accept that as an unchangeable fact of life. We can do better than the platitudes and failed policies of the past. I’ve identified a couple of possible root causes, but many more undoubtedly exist and should be fully explored.
Thank you for reading this far into an article about a difficult topic. Please comment below with any constructive ideas you have and further this discussion in a constructive way.
Konstadinos Moros is an Associate Attorney with Michel & Associates, a law firm in Long Beach that regularly represents the California Rifle & Pistol Association (CRPA) in its litigation efforts to restore the Second Amendment in California. You can find him on his Twitter handle @MorosKostas. To donate to CRPA or become a member, visit https://crpa.org/.
This post was adapted by SNW from a tweet posted by Konstadinos Moros.
I don’t think I’ll re-visit this thread, I’m not gonna like what I will see, by all the usual ‘players’.
Go right ahead folks, show your ass for all to see… 🙁
There is a bit of irony to the content of your post.
No change is coming.
It took generations of destructive policy to get here and constructive policy can only ever last two years or so before succumbing to more destructive policy.
Entropy always wins. Destruction takes no energy while creation takes limitless energy. All parties in positions to effect any change just want to get themselves rich before they die.
This is one of those scorched-earth reset situations. Kinda like peace in the ME or partisan Americans coming together. Ashes before Phoenixes.
It’s a modern cultural issue that infects all of us. Life is no longer about living virtuously. It’s about getting while the getting is good. That was the entire point of the Puppet-Harris Administration. The ideological fights were a distraction.
blammos third term contained zero virtue and disbursement amounts to bring tears.
and really, any virtue resemblance of the earlier two was only signalled.
That’s exactly what the Anti 2A zealots want the conversation to be about because as soon as it goes there they will scream racism just like every liberal progressive democrat does when something happens to something they support but is against the law or common decency. All that needs to happen is for crimes to be punished to the fullest extent of the law which will require the voters to continue to remove soft on criminals prosecutors and politicians. It won’t happen over night but it has begun to happen like with Kim Foxx on Chiraq and George Gascon in L.A and the not guilty verdict for Daniel Penny in the New York subway case.
It is absolutely imperative for that to happen. It’s weird how loyal black people, and especially black women, are to the Democrat Party. They’re voting for their own destruction.
Not weird at all when almost everything in their culture and a fair bit in mainstream American culture has the actual racially blind application of law being against the black community specifically.
I think part of the picture is missing here.
In the CDC states map in the article, gun related homicides are grossly misrepresented for constitutional carry states on a per-state basis. In reality, its not the whole state but rather due to specific areas in the states. For example, in my favorite pick-on state (because my sister lives there) for constitutional (i.e. permitless) carry Mississippi they have one blue area in the south western part of the state (the rest of the state is red) where most of the homicides in the state happen on average and in the rest of the state they are relatively low to non-existent and when one does happen in the rest of the state over 80% of the time its a perpetrator from the blue area in the state. This contributes to the overall state numbers making the whole state look like its got a higher gun homicide rate when in reality its that area of the state and not the whole state. And its basically the same in, say, Tennessee with Memphis and Nashville, and in other constitutional carry states which contributes to the overall state numbers where the rest of the state outside those areas its low to non-existent.
So its a little biasing in discussion to throw in state numbers as if its the whole state like the CDC pic used in this article does, its a typical anti-gun talking point to do that and does nothing to help solve the problem in addressing those specific areas in the state where the majority of gun homicides are associated with.
I applaud the author’s attempt to show fairly simple facts with supporting data.
Sadly, too many people–perhaps 50% or more of the human race–reject personal responsibility and operate on emotion. For those people, it is virtually impossible to honorably persuade them to change their lives and start a new journey on the road to success. Rather, for those people, their only hope is to hit rock-bottom which drives them to finally question everything in their world view. Even then, the overwhelming majority of those people will cling to their mindset of rejecting personal responsibility and acting on emotion. Quite simply: far too many people are just plain broken and will never improve, which is a facet of all races and ethnicities.
Longer reply held up in moderation. Short version the ability to openly and honestly discuss this topic is a major test of one’s ability to think critically as well as freely.
Critical thinking is a lost cause among liberal progressive democrats and unfortunately in the children who have been and are products of the liberal progressive democrat educational indoctrination system. Where they have been told to only believe what supports their emotions and reject anything that doesn’t.
There is one missing part to that, nobody is immune to propaganda. It is more effective with some than others but it does leave a mark on everyone that to some extent can be manipulated.
This is an excellent article! It isn’t news for those that read this blog, but it’s laid out perfectly for the uninformed. I suggest everyone bookmark this and share it with your Democrat friends and family. There have been various reasons why someone would vote D or R over the years. For the people that aren’t one or two issue voters in 2024, the difference in voting habits comes down to informed and logic vs uninformed and emotion.
I’ll add a couple of things to the article. Sure racism is a thing, but I don’t think everyone that points out the known statistics is a racist. I think some of it is done out of exasperation because this known issue is not only ignored, but the truth regularly gets shouted down and censored to protect the Democrat Industrial Complex (DIC).
Another thing to add is on the solution side of the topic. As noted, there are plenty of issues to tackle. While we tackle those issues, we need to be doing something else: locking up violent offenders for a long time. What does that solve? Will it teach them a lesson? For the most part, no. That isn’t how it works. Then what’s the point other than this thing called justice? The point is that those violent offenders won’t be killing anyone unless it’s a prison inmate. The article mentions the prime age for violent criminal offenses. People age out of crime. Throw the book at them when they commit violent crimes. They’ll be closer to aging out of crime when they get out of prison.
Hate to say it but you just described the 90’s laws enacted throughout the 90’s……..which very likely worked despite all the “super predator panic locked up too many kids” bitching we went the entire other direction with here in NY.
Coffee needed *crime control laws enacted throughout the 90’s
It was the one thing Biden did right which he had to run away from. The best Dem president of my lifetime was for law and order and balancing the budget. 90s Willy Clinton could be mistaken for a modern day “moderate” Republican.
Like I always say, we know how to solve these problems because we have done it in the past. What does that mean? It means they do NOT want to solve these problems.
Without problems they cannot extort more rights/money/wealth by other measures from us. Probably why everyone hates the idea of a Trump presidency. Even a perfunctory attempt at solving problems does too much to expose the game.
The Republican Congress was for those things. He wasn’t “for” any conservative principle, though he compromised (e.g. “law and order” for gun control) where necessary to advance his agenda or legacy. Clinton was for Clinton.
Key takeaway: having someone on your side who is passionate about his beliefs is great. Conversely, an opponent who’s after wealth, popularity, and power is much easier to work with than a “principled” proponent of the Left’s evil ideology.
This is very interesting, well researched article. I don’t know the answers but a two parent family is part of the answer. Doing things to help the family stay intact is essential for change which will ultimately mean that government gets out of the welfare systems as we know them. The justice system must work on curbing young offenders early so they do not want to stay in the penal system. Education is the corrections system must be taken seriously as well as family values classes in the that education process.
I have spent over sixty years either full or part time in the firearms industry, including nearly 25 years full time in law enforcement. Most of that career was in the firearms instruction and armorer roles. During a nearly three year duty in a corrections environment one statistic stands out. Much more than seventy percent of the offenders booked into our jail had less than a high school education. Family and education are major parts of the solution, I am certain.