Reality Check: No Gun Rights Win (or Loss) is Ever Final

 

One of humanity’s foibles is that pain entrenches us in the past and future, while pleasure entrenches us in the present. When we suffer, our thoughts hurtle towards shoulda/woulda/coulda (obsession with the past) or “this is never going to end” (obsession with the future). When we’re happy, we can slip into the opposite problems of greed, pride, or gluttony — not thinking enough about the past or the future.

A week ago, American gun owners could have thought they were living through the end of history. Concealed carry legal in all 50 states, the real-time demise of most suppressor and barrel-length regulation, and a momentum behind gun rights that was so strong that the main problem was that gun companies didn’t have enough room in the market to grow — because they’d already sold to everyone.

Today, the same gun owners see a very different picture. After the midterm elections, there’s a plausible world where in 2029, the Supreme Court goes from the 6–3 majority that ruled in Bruen to a 5–4 majority that would vote to overturn Heller, nevermind Bruen or the upcoming ruling in Viramontes v. Cook County which will likely strike down assault weapons bans. (Side note, the latter’s case name is probably going to change because the lead plaintiff, Cutberto Viramontes, filed two days ago to withdraw from the case.)

In reality, neither picture is accurate or final. As long as legislatures exist and can still pass new laws, no gun rights win is permanent. The question that really matters is whether they want to pass new laws.

— Open Source Defense in Gun laws and the end of history fallacy