This is a Really Good Time for Gun Companies to Think Smaller

Here’s a suggestion for gun companies working their way through the always slow, but even slower summer of 2025: start thinking smaller going forward. Not for your business goals, for the new areas of opportunity opened up by the January 1, 2026. That’s when the cost of suppressors, short-barreled rifles and shotguns and “any other weapons” will go from today’s $200 plus the federal paperwork to just the paperwork.

We’ve all been rushing around predicting a surge in suppressor sales, but I think we’re overlooking the other items that are targets of opportunity. Yes, everyone is going to want suppressors, but not because we’re all would-be assassins (sorry antis). We want them because they’re effective hearing protection accessories.

I’m leaving it there. Not going into the weeds to argue the need (not the want) for an item that essentially performs the same function as a muffler on lawnmowers, chainsaws, and vehicles. Suppressors protect our hearing. Saying otherwise makes you either deaf or ideologically blind. Or both.

The immediate problem with suppressors is no one will want to pay the $200 tariff now with its period-certain demise of the transfer tax drawing closer by the day. Some makers and sellers will be able to afford to eat the $200. Others can’t. Those that can will see their sales increase. Those that can’t, won’t.

But the two other categories — short-barreled weapons (rifles and shotguns) and the nebulous “any other weapons” — also represent growth segments for smart companies. There are already a wealth of “personal defense weapons” (PDWs) in the marketplace. They range from AR-style pistols to guns that when equipped with arm braces, resemble the legendary MP5.

Lately, I’ve been shooting the snot out of one of them, Springfield Armory’s new-ish Kuna.

I started toying with it a couple of weeks ago. And while I really like shooting it, it’s one of those guns that will be improved when the Times Square ball drops on 2025. And the improvement will not require any retro-fitting or replacing any complicated parts.

On January 1, 2026,  the Kuna will become legal (after requisite paperwork) with a full-sized folding stock.

Today, it’s legal with an arm brace because manufacturers aren’t liable for people deliberately misusing the arm brace.

Most of you already know what I mean: unfold the arm brace then scrunch down to turn a perfect length arm brace into a too-short rifle stock.

The Kuna’s named for Croatia’s national animal (a/k/a the Pine Marten). It’s no secret that the Kuna is manufactured in Croatia by Springfield’s partner, HS Produkt. It’s a roller-delayed system that reduces reciprocating mass. That reduction cuts down on recoil and muzzle flip. Net-net, the Kuna’s an easy-shooting, low-recoil pseudo PDW that enables you to keep rounds on target with a gun that’s lighter and more maneuverable than heavier gas-driven systems.

It has fully ambidextrous controls, a hammer-forged barrel, an AR pattern grip, flat trigger, hybrid flip-up sights (think MP5) M-LOK rails, and plenty of real estate atop the gun for optics. And, yes, it’s suppressor ready.

It can be had now in one of two configurations; the base gun ($999 MSRP) or equipped with a Strike Industries FSA folding brace ($1,149 MSRP). Both ship with two translucent 30-round magazines -unless you live in one of the “capacity restrictive states.”

And with the change in the law, there’s going to be a burgeoning market for PDWs come 2026.

Smart manufacturers are already scrambling around in their skunk works to design, prototype, and debug guns that have the possibility of turning today’s ubiquitous 16-inch AR-rifle into something smaller. Yes, Form 4 paperwork is a hassle. And yes, the “big, beautiful lawsuit” filed by unified 2A groups may remove that…eventually. But the ability to own a legit-PDW in just a few months with only a Form 4 — and no $200 penalty tax — will probably get a lot of people over the paperwork hump.

The popularity of the (occasionally misused) pistol brace is proof positive that there’s plenty of demand for carbines with barrels shorter than sixteen inches. And these smaller guns will re-popularize pistol calibers. You can’t do it in .223/5.56 with a suppressor, but the new rules will make it possible to integrate suppressors into those carbines…a win/win for shooters who want a compact gun that will neither blind nor deafen them on the range or in a serious shooting situation.

Are we beginning to see opportunity here? Maybe, but one of the companies I look to when I’m trend-spotting doesn’t make guns, it makes accessories. Just last week, Magpul announced their UCS  a folding “universal carbine stock” designed to fit firearms with vertical 1913 rails on the rear of their firearms receivers.

The $219.95 (MSRP) device will instantly make the Kuna, along with guns like the SIG MPX/MCX, FN SCAR, IWI Galil, CZ Scorpion, Ruger LC carbine, Brownell’s BRN-180, and certain AK variants such as the PSA AK/AK-V into legit SBRs.

I’m not going to be shocked if/when one of the forward-thinking shotgun companies comes out with a very short shotgun in a non-punishing gauge (20 or 28 gauge…maybe even .410 bore). I’m also predicting that new gun, whatever it is, will also feature a pistol grip with a 1913 rail behind it.

But there are also other opportunities here, too. The “any other weapon” category has always been more “007” gadgetry thing than real weaponry. With a little innovation and some imagination, the category stands to get the attention of customers looking for something different.

The mind boggles at the possibilities, but the imagination should be bubbling.

As always, we’ll keep you posted.