Behavioral Economics is the Path Toward Reducing Urban ‘Gun Violence’ … Allegedly

doves of peace guns barrel
Grok

The conventional wisdom of both left and right has fundamentally misunderstood the [gun violence] problem. Gun violence is not primarily a problem of incentives. Most shootings are not premeditated or motivated by economic considerations. Instead, most shootings are arguments that go sideways and end in tragedy because someone’s got a gun. And there are lots of cheap — even free —ways to prevent the predictable mistakes people make in those difficult situations.

Everyone is prone to making mistakes in fraught, emotionally challenging situations. Just look at poker. Poker players have a term for getting frustrated and playing emotionally rather than rationally: going “on tilt.” Avoiding tilt is crucial to poker success. Elite players eventually learn through trial and error how to achieve the necessary mental discipline to avoid going on tilt.

While trial and error might work for a poker game, it is an exceedingly dangerous approach for the millions of young people across America who must navigate daily extraordinarily difficult neighborhood environments where guns, gangs and drugs are common.

But behavioral economics has taught us ways of helping those young people achieve the same strategies that poker players deploy to keep their emotions in check, through simulated social interactions.

A few years ago my research center, the University of Chicago Crime Lab, worked with the head of the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center to train the staff to deliver this sort of programming during downtime when kids would have otherwise just been watching TV in the common room. That cost almost nothing and reduced recidivism by over 20%.

Why aren’t we doing that in every carceral facility in the country? Why aren’t we carving out a few weeks in every high school health class to deliver this sort of program to everyone? The leading causes of death of U.S. teens are homicide, suicide, car crashes, and drug overdose. What do these have in common? These are deaths by decision-making.

— Jens Ludwig in The best way to cut gun violence, and it’s almost free

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19 thoughts on “Behavioral Economics is the Path Toward Reducing Urban ‘Gun Violence’ … Allegedly”

  1. .40 cal Booger

    Behavioral Economics: As of 12 July 2025, ‘left wing violence’ (euphemistically called ‘political violence’ to keep from calling it ‘left wing violence’ or ‘left wing extremist violence’ or ‘left wing domestic terrorism violence’ cause heaven forbid we hurt their itty bitty feelings by calling what it actually is) – for inflicting intentional harm has (again, for the 5th year in a row) outpaced ‘gun violence’ and is now 72,000:1.

  2. Act like a thug and you get street cred, money and cheap women.

    How to you disincentivize an entire culture that has been operating this way for generations?

  3. The author’s narrative as I understand it : youth + poverty + access to firearms = violence. Well, that narrative doesn’t work in the Appalachia region. Maybe demographics with associated culture is the crucial factors in preventing violence.

    1. .40 cal Booger

      “The author’s narrative as I understand it : youth + poverty + access to firearms = violence. Well, that narrative doesn’t work in the Appalachia region. ”

      It also pretty much doesn’t work outside of cities/areas under blue domination leadership – and if you will notice this missive appeared as an opinion piece in a Chicago news outlet (Chicago Business News) and the authors claim of ‘credentials’ is “the University of Chicago Crime Lab, worked with the head of the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center” which is a ‘controlled environment’ where the kids have no other choice but to sit and be there. Then the author claims “That cost almost nothing and reduced recidivism by over 20%.” – but according to Chicago’s action they simply don’t charge most teen recidivist and let them go so this “20%’ is probably ignoring the reality that most of these kids released back into the same environments will most likely do it again cause, to borrow a line, “That’s the Chicago way!”

    2. And their solution is the same thing we’ve seen a million times with a slightly different package. The solution is always to provide these youths/criminals with government replacing the parents and the family. That is the problem, not the solution! I love how Jens is pretending like this is some novel idea. I’m sure he’s still patting himself on the back for writing this.

  4. “Most shootings are not premeditated or motivated by economic considerations.” Perhaps not directly, but in-directly. More importantly, a lack of a 2 parent household, supervision, and moral guidance and leadership.

  5. …most shootings are arguments that…end in tragedy because someone’s got a gun.

    Yeah. I got into an argument the other day. I shot the person I was arguing with because I had a gun on me.

    These people are genuinely retarded. They don’t understand basic concepts.

    1. .40 cal Booger

      I used to just shoot someone who was arguing with me. Now I just shoot them because I think they are going to argue with me, and save myself the time waiting for them to argue. I always win those arguments.

      😂

      Seriously though, “…most shootings are arguments that…end in tragedy because someone’s got a gun.” is one of those ‘very bottom of the barrel-o-ignorance’ things to say.

    2. Cerealkillin'

      If we are to conclude absent a gun the argument would’ve ended in a stabbing, beating or other form of physical assault then society has a much bigger problem than guns. Apparently there are hundreds of thousands of violent psychopaths roaming around free.

      Maybe that’s a problem worthy of a solution or at the very least containment.

      An argument can be made that urbania is containment of the psychopaths but if that truly is the case then we can all stop wasting time with pointless discussion and encroaching on the liberties of others and just let the contained psychopaths kill one another until relative peace is established.

      Only a few years ago 50% of Democrats were willing to send the unvaccinated to containment camps. If they’re so eager to lock up millions for safety’s sake surely they’re on board with locking up at the very least repeat violent offenders.

      1. .40 cal Booger

        “If we are to conclude absent a gun the argument would’ve ended in a stabbing, beating or other form of physical assault then society has a much bigger problem than guns.”

        And thats basically what he is concluding without realizing it.

        If the anger is such in an argument or disagreement that one would resort to a gun, then the anger is there to use anything at their disposal if they don’t have a gun.

        We have seen this behavior in the last few weeks with the violent left wingers and ANTIFA/TRANTIFA…and even with some of them using guns.

  6. .40 cal Booger

    Trump election 2016 ‘Screaming Girl’ level Left Wing TDS Max mental illness> Maine: Anti-Gun Professor Tries to Silence Pro-Gun Student – It Backfires Badly.

    “Bangor, ME – A Maine college professor is under fire after allegedly mocking and attempting to silence a student over her support for gun rights and her Christian faith. Now, nearly 50 Republican lawmakers are demanding her immediate termination.

    Katherine Parker, an early childhood education student at Eastern Maine Community College (EMCC), says her professor, Dr. Carol Lewandowski, crossed the line when she submitted a pro-Second Amendment essay for class. In response, Lewandowski reportedly lashed out in an email, writing: “You clearly do not care about people as much as you care about guns.

    When Parker refused to change her topic, the professor doubled down, bringing in college administrators to back her up.

    But Parker didn’t back down….”

    “According to Themainewire.com, this is not the first time that TDS-affected Professor Carol Lewandowski has run off the rails due to political issues;

    ‘This is not the first time that Lewandowski has been absent from her class due to political issues — according to emails obtained by the Maine Wire, Lewandowski canceled class after the 2024 election, claiming that she was too upset about Donald Trump winning to teach, or to even ‘communicate in any way, shape, or form.’
    …”

    https://www.ammoland.com/2025/07/maine-anti-gun-professor-tries-to-silence-pro-gun-student-backfires-badly/

  7. Hmm…since over half of firearm related deaths in the US are the result of suicide I guess the real issue is how to win an argument with yourself without resorting to violence…

    Asking an economist, behavioral or otherwise, probably won’t be much help, as they say: if all the world’s economists were laid end to end they’d fail to reach a conclusion.

    1. .40 cal Booger

      “Hmm…since over half of firearm related deaths in the US are the result of suicide …”

      Actually, we don’t really know that. This is because the way they collect the data, and the data, is flawed with inconsistencies and ‘suicides’ that were not really suicides and mis-application of terms and flawed reporting methods leading to falsely inflating numbers.

  8. Chris T in KY

    Support having father’s in the home, instead of a government welfare check. That will reduce crime.

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