July Gun Sales Dip Below 1 Million for the First Time in Over Five Years

Well, it finally happened. The gun industry had been on a hell of a run for almost the last six years. The NSSF’s adjusted background check totals — the best (though almost certainly understated) measure of gun sales in the US — had jumped up over the 1 million per month threshold more than five years ago and looked like it had established a new floor. Until July, that is. And while the actual number of sales was no doubt higher (for reasons NSSF explains below) the trend in the adjusted NICS numbers is what’s really instructive.

The numbers always dip in the summer and dip, they did last month. The NSSF’s Mark Oliva had this to say about that:

July’s figures of 978,731 background checks for the sale of a firearm at retail beings an end to the streak of over 1 million background checks each month that ran for nearly six years. Summer months routinely show lower background check figures than other times of the year and we’ve watched as the background check figures came down from astronomical highs several years ago. There are factors that contribute to this, including relief of concern that politics would deny some from being able to exercise Second Amendment rights to purchase a firearm of one’s choice and economic uncertainty. Firearm manufacturers continue to work to produce high-quality, safe, and reliable firearms to meet the demand of discerning customers across the nation.

Here’s the NSSF’s press release announcing the July statistics . . .

The July 2025 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 978,731 is a decrease of 8.1 percent compared to the July 2024 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,064,790.

For comparison, the unadjusted July 2025 FBI NICS figure of 1,936,621 reflects a 4.2 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,021,235 in July 2024.

Additional insights on the month-over-month NICS data from GunBroker, NICS Reporting & Analysis (June 2025 data), available in the member portal under Industry Research.

• • Top-5 States for Adjusted NICS Checks:           TX, FL, CA, PA, VA
  • Top-5 States for FBI NICS Handgun Checks:    TX, FL, CA,  PA, TN
  • Top-5 States for FBI NICS Long Gun Checks:   TX, FL, CA, PA, VA

Please note: Twenty eight states as of the July 21, 2025 update currently have at least one qualified alternative permit, which under the Brady Act allows the permit-holder, who has undergone a background check to obtain the permit, to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer without a separate additional background check for that transfer. The number of NICS checks in these states does not include these legal transfers based on qualifying permits and NSSF does not adjust for these transfers.

The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.

Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide an additional picture of current market conditions. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions for sales or transfers of new or used firearms. 

It should be noted that these statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold or sales dollars. Based on varying state laws, local market conditions and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.