AOWs are an interesting test case, because before this new law lowered the transfer tax on them to $0, it wasn’t $200. The ubiquity of pistol braces is proof that people want carbines with <16” barrels. The NFA is arguably the only reason that the standard carbine barrel length isn’t already <16”. With the $200 tax stamp now free, the Form 4 is the only hurdle. And companies like Silencer Central and Silencer Shop have mostly abstracted that away. So you can expect shoulder-fired guns to get much smaller pretty quickly. This will have some second-order effects:
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- Pistol calibers will make a comeback. Fans of 10mm can rejoice. That cartridge isn’t much fun in a handgun, but it’s perfect for a PDW. Another winner is intermediate cartridges like .300 BLK, optimized for ~8” barrels. Everybody wants an 8” barrel, but nobody wants to shoot 5.56 out of one.
- The 16” AR is going to become less popular. It’s an awkward middle ground. It’ll have a place for people who don’t want to be registered under the NFA, but it will no longer be the go-to rifle everyone buys.
- As Form 4s get more and more abstracted away, AOWs will become more of a thing. Once there are 10-20 million SBRs out in the wild, that’s enough critical mass for KelTec or someone to make a crazy new pen gun.
- Companies can set themselves apart with innovation in ergonomics and recoil mitigation. The smaller the gun, the more important both of those become.
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There’s a dangerous corollary to all this. If we’re headed towards most guns having silencers on them and SBRs being the new standard rifle, that means we’ll end up with most guns being registered with the federal government.
That’s a risk, but if that becomes the top problem, it means we’ve built up cultural momentum that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. The $0 tax stamp is controversial among people who wanted to hold out for full repeal, but those people are underestimating the cultural momentum that $0 tax stamps will drive. Think about a society where there are 50x as many silencers and SBRs in circulation. That’s a different planet than what we’re used to. It’s where we’re headed. And it can create the kind of momentum that could be used to take these things out of the NFA altogether.
— Open Source Defense, In all the silencer talk, everyone forgot about SBRs and AOWs
There are already a zillion “SBRs” with pistol braces in circulation, proving that SBR regulation is unnecessary. R.I.P. SB Tactical.
Making it less costly to get a Suppressor will do more than anything else, to open guns to the less educated about them.
Because the less educated are afraid of the loud report and the recoil.
Most americans are not going to carry around a PDW. They are heavier and more difficult to conceal.
Are you going to carry one in the summer time? Wearing your summer clothes?
Or perhaps a PDW in 32acp. Or 22LR? They would be smaller and lighter.
Then you have states that allow neither SBR’s nor silencers. Until they are delisted they remain unobtainable.
Put a timer on it.
How long does it take to draw a gun when you need it?
And how long does it take to deploy PDW when you need it?
Registration is a red-herring at this point.
The omnipresent reality of wholesale data collection means If you’re a gun owner the government knows it or at least can know it if it cared to.
Likewise it’s not as if the government really cares if it doesn’t know. Your door will be kicked in the same way whether they’re after you for machine guns, drugs, unpaid parking tickets, unpermitted structures or for nothing at all as we’ve seen too many times with wrong addresses and questionable warrants. It’ll still be a dozen deep stack of tactical Larpers tossing flashbangs into baby cribs.
The same argument for fools who claim carrying will lead to more paranoid cops. As if no cop has ever fired on an unarmed person, person holding their wallet to get their ID or a person holding a phone.
2+2, 3+1, 16/4, 2*2, 5-1, the end result is always the same.
All that really matters is what you’re going to do if and when that day comes.
8.6blk.
“8.6blk.”
Why 8.6 compared to .300 BLK?
Soooo…on 1 Jan 2026 the ATF definition of ‘Short Barreled Rifle’ in effect for builders becomes : Torquing the barrel nut.
😁
ATF To Lose 25% Budget | Registry Deletion Required | ATF – DEA Merger Confirmed DOA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bx-LLQksALY
(note: also de-funded are … ATF frame and receiver rule – Pistol Brace rule – Engaged in the Business rule – Biden export restrictions – & more and things that did not make it into the BBB)
“ATF To Lose 25% Budget | Registry Deletion Required”
You now damn well what will happen, they are now furiously backing those records up and stashing them somewhere safe.
For re-use when they want…
Registration helps the legal cause of demonstrating “common use.”
If we get to the day that any form of confiscation occurs, it won’t last long. If just 1% of gun owners decide their guns won’t be taken today, there won’t be any cops left for the second day of operations. This is a huge win and more are coming.
Didn’t you mean where 16″ and greater rifles will be less popular? Because your whole article proved short barrels will become MORE popular
A SBR M-1 30 Cardine may be the best compromise defensive firearm versus a Pistol Caliber Carbine. With modern bullets, current M-1 Carbines punch well above the current crop of 9mm PCCs. Unlike the 9mm PCCs, the M-1 is not a blow back type action. At ~5 1/2 pounds, a full-size M-1 Carbine is significantly lighter than any of the current PCCs. Looking at an old SPEER #13 reloading manual, (pages 476/477), the ballistics for the 30 Caliber RUGER Super Blackhawk, with a 7 1/2″ barrel, equal those for a 16″ barreled 9mm PCC. The SPEER date was recorded from that revolver, and not a closed breech “proof” barrel.
Now think how effective a 12″ barreled “Paratrooper” version M-1 Carbine would be. After all, the military made great use of such a modification to the M-1 Carbine when they were in Southeast Asia about 60 years ago. Some were even “upgraded” with the addition of M-2 components.
Typical SBRs are mainly geared towards defensive use, as opposed to hunting. I would buy a 12″ Paratrooper model M-1 Carbine, if one was ever available, mainly just because I could. As an “older shooter”, I have hunted using a full-sized M-1 Carbine and found the 30 Carbine round works for varmints in heavy brush. A 12″ Paratrooper M-1 Carbine should be equally as effective.
Bonus Point – First time someone shoots a 10″ barreled 223, they would understand why a Suppressor is absolutely required. And for most “Rifle” cartridges, the ballistics performance loss is horrible. So – A SBR using almost any “Rifle” type cartridge is a waste. 16″ barrels, or even 20″ barrels, are still viable. Magnum Revolver Cartridges have Rims and are difficult to feed in Semi Autos. So, the range of effective cartridges for use in SBRs is limited.