From 1994 to 2022, no state changed its mind in favor of [assault weapons bans]. But that equilibrium — seven states with AWBs and 43 without — no longer holds. In addition to the states above, Virginia and New Mexico look to be on their way to bans of their own in 2026.
It’s a mirror image of the concealed carry revolution. That also happened state by state, and most of the country was shall-issue before most people even knew that was a trend. The same could happen with AWBs. What will decide that is whether guns continue to build cultural momentum and whether the courts get involved.
On that latter point, a New Mexico ban might have a silver lining. It’s in jurisdiction of the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals. Unlike the circuit courts covering, say, California or New York or Massachusetts, the Tenth Circuit might strike down an AWB. That could generate a circuit split, since other circuit courts to look at the issue have upheld AWBs. And a circuit split makes it likelier for the Supreme Court to accept an AWB case. Justice Kavanaugh has already basically announced that the Court is looking to take such a case in the next 1-2 years.
— Open Source Defense in Gun control is quietly having a moment
Yeah, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
SCOTUS has had plenty of opportunities to kill AWBs refused.
This nonsense isn’t going to go away. States will implement them. Some courts will strike them. Others will uphold them. Years, decades will pass and us people will just have to put up with it. SCOTUS won’t touch it until there’s a dem majority on the bench.
Unfortunately we don’t have an army of fat lesbians and mentally ill drug addicts to eagerly die in the street for the cause.
Concur. If “silver lining” means “maybe in 10-15 years your rights MIGHT be restored by SCOTUS”, then they ain’t rights.
I retired at the end of 2009. Before then the Fourth Circuit (Maryland, the Virginias, and the Carolinas) was reliably conservative. But the Dems in Congress, surrounded by the circuit, were watching. What’s your read on a Fourth Circuit ruling if Virginia attempts an assault weapons ban?