When Calculating the Risk/Reward of Carrying a Gun That Day, Alex Pretti Chose…Poorly

alex pretti shooting video

[Alex Pretti] made some conscious choices here to take on some risk. He was carrying a gun into a situation where he knew he was at high risk of interacting with federal officers. He was filming them. On seeing an officer shove a woman to the ground, he stepped between the officer and the woman. That last act in particular was a knowing act. Pretti would have known that stepping in would be met with further physical escalation. And obviously, that escalated all the way to his death.

A comment over at Handwaving Freakoutery put it like this:

If I am carrying and have an interaction with police I don’t assume that I am dealing with a rational actor, I assume I’m dealing with the lowest common denominator. My only goal is to protect myself and get back home safely to my family. I got my first carry permit in 1996. It was drilled into me to avoid conflict at all costs while armed unless I was willing to kill or be killed. While this guy had a legal right to be armed it was monumentally stupid to insert himself into a situation with armed federal agents who I’m sure are stressed and on edge.

That’s a perfectly reasonable perspective. But it can also be reasonable to say, “I am taking the calculated risk to bring a gun into this dangerous situation because the expected value of me needing it for lawful self-defense outweighs the (negative) expected value of the police shooting me over it.” The entire premise of decentralized gun ownership is that society works best when people independently make their own personal risk/reward decisions about how and when to carry a gun, within some loose guardrails (e.g. don’t brandish, no desk pops in public, etc.) defined in law.

Sure, if you are definitely intending on getting into a wrestling match with police, don’t bring a gun. But we don’t know what Pretti’s intentions were that day. It’s possible he was only intending to film, he made an impulsive decision to step in after seeing the woman get shoved, and he only realized the depth of the danger after it was too late. Maybe he was always intending to physically get in the officers’ way, and he made a poor decision about the risks of bringing a gun along. Eleven days prior, he appears to have been more clearly the proximate provocateur in a separate incident, kicking out the taillight on an ICE vehicle — he was concealed carrying that day too, had a tussle with the officers from the vehicle, and they released him after a couple minutes. So who knows, maybe he extrapolated from that and thought all future federal officers would react the same way.

We don’t know, but the point is, what can we learn? Well, if “society works best when people independently make their own personal risk/reward decisions about how and when to carry a gun”, then the lesson is make your risk/reward decisions. Take the time, for each novel situation, to consider how and why you will carry. Risk: what liabilities could the gun create for you? Reward: how will you use it if you need to, and have you training enough to do that confidently? On the risk side, you also have to account for poor performance from others. Think of it as defensive driving. If someone is looking at their phone, crosses the double-yellow, and slams into you, saying “But they shouldn’t have done that” won’t bring you back to life.

That doesn’t mean that minimizing your risk is the only thing that matters. For someone or something you care deeply about, you’ll take on more risk than you would for the grocery run. People have called Alex Pretti a hero, a fool, and everything in between. We don’t have an opinion on that. The general point is that any act of heroism involves someone subordinating their own safety to some greater purpose. So there’s nothing wrong with taking on some conscious risk. But make sure you do that consciously. Not through oversights, ego, or impulse.

Ok, now we come to the officers. It’s one thing for the government to occasionally kill someone that it shouldn’t have killed. But a feature of the government’s handling of Pretti’s killing is, judging just from public statements so far, that they have demonstrated little interest in considering how they might have gotten through this situation without killing the guy. That’s by no means unique to Pretti’s killing. Look at the Bryan Malinowski case for a prominent recent example, but there are many others. “We don’t particularly care if we kill you while arresting you” is not an attitude that gun owners can be comfortable with the government having.

— Open Source Defense in To Improve Others, Improve Yourself

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13 thoughts on “When Calculating the Risk/Reward of Carrying a Gun That Day, Alex Pretti Chose…Poorly”

  1. Like them or not, Pretti broke the laws of Minnesota the day he was killed. He made a conscious choice to concealed carry without identification. What his precise intent is now impossible to determine but that’s indicative that it was less than peaceful and or honorable.

    As far as the government is concerned the context of the Pretti incident needs taken into account. ICE agents were and still are operating under extreme circumstances, circumstances much more akin to combat than typical law enforcement actions – circumstances nearly as asymmetrical as our experience with foreign insurgencies.

    That’s not an excuse for incompetence or overreaction by ICE but a situation that needs addressing – local LEOs should be cooperating with ICE to prevent precisely the kinds of escalation that led to Pretti being shot. When protest devolves into violence the protesters start becoming potential combatants which, considering the state’s partial monopoly on the application of force, can lead to tragedy.

  2. “But we don’t know what Pretti’s intentions were that day. It’s possible he was only intending to film, he made an impulsive decision to step in after seeing the woman get shoved, and he only realized the depth of the danger after it was too late.”

    The woman being shoved was part of the setup to video a confrontation with federal agents. The woman getting shoved was part of the team involved, she would attract the feds into physical confrontation, Pretti would come in and join and a third person, the other woman would make a video of it. You can see this from the beginning in one video – the camera captures the action with the shoved woman beginning with a quick pan from the left , that’s the cue, Pretti steps away from the woman making the video into the street (you can see his shadow on the ground) then the camera is on him and he is sort of paused there for a few seconds and she tells him to ‘go’ (i.e. director ‘lights camera action’) then he starts towards the feds with some yelling and follows them into the area where they shove the woman then gets into it and the video woman from the few seconds before she tells him to ‘go’ has kept the camera on him the whole time, hes the star of the show even when the woman that gets shoved falls the main focus of the camera view is on Pretti, It was all a set up by a team of three to provoke and video a confrontation with the feds.

    Yes, we do know what Pretti’s intentions were that day.

    Now more info from research:

    1. Pretti was not a [working] nurse at the time he died. He quit his job prior the incidents he began instigating 11 days prior the day he died.

    2. According to some co-workers, Pretti was a ‘terrible nurse’ and ‘horrible coworker’.

    3. According to some co-workers and some others who knew him, Pretti was ‘unstable’ and was prone to emotional outbursts and making violent threats. [We saw this in the video from his Jan 13 incident – he was unhinged, unstable, emotional outbursts, and then acted violently in attacking the vehicle and spitting on the feds.]

    4. Pretti scrubbed his social media footprint prior to showing up at the fed’s location the day he died. He had alluded to not coming home that day. He had previously alluded to committing more violent acts against federal law enforcement after his violent instigating attack on federal law enforcement vehicle 11 days prior – in the incident 11 days prior he was also armed at that time. He should have been arrested that day 11 days prior but the feds did not arrest him.

    Basic Timeline of Pretti activity:

    Jan 13, 2026 – Engaging feds with aggressive instigating acts, challenging them to ‘hurt’ him. Commits violent act, attacks vehicle damaging it then threatens fed’s and spits on them. Feds engage to subdue and repel, but do not arrest him. He is also armed when this happened – a video of the event catches him with his coat off and his gun can be seen. By now, technically, under law due to his intentional criminal act he is no longer in lawful possession of a firearm – however, is not a ‘legally designated’ prohibited person at this point because he has not been arrested, charged, and convicted of his crime(s) that day. Had he been arrested that day, there is a chance that he may not have been on the streets on 24 Jan and died that day – this was a failure of federal law enforcement as they should have arrested him then. But it was also more a failure of Walz, Frey, and the MPD because they encouraged and facilitated such activity, and MPD should have been on the streets taking care of this type of activity.

    Jan 13 – Jan 23, 2026 – is active in Signal chats and on ‘patrol’ to ‘respond’ to fed’s locations. The lieutenant governor of Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan, served as an admin and dispatcher in Signal under the name ‘Flan Southside,’ and possible felony murder charge for her incoming. ‘felony murder’ reality: if you are involved in a conspiracy—in this case, interfering with federal ICE operations—and someone dies as a result, every participant in that conspiracy can be charged with murder. The law applies even if the person who died was a member of the group, like Alex Pretti. Being the ‘admin’ of the coordination network makes the legal liability inescapable.

    Jan 24, 2026 – Pretti arrives at fed’s location. Before public videos made by other anti-ICE team members and others in the area, Pretti has already been instigating confrontation with feds and had threatened them with violence and alluded to shooting them. Its suspected the one video showing Pretti in the street moving towards the feds, the woman making the video tells him to ‘go’ then he starts moving towards the fed’s – that’s a setup to instigate a confrontation for purposes of making a video of it but its suspected its also where Pretti was going to [possibly] shoot fed’s as prior that video beginning he had alluded to shooting federal law enforcement and catching it on video.

    [note: It seems like typical left wing mental illness instability had reached a crisis point for Pretti and he was opting for ‘suicide’. He had quit his job, scrubbed his social media, had not planned to come home on Jan 24th, 2026. Maybe he was planning to use the ‘suicide by cop’ method to become a ‘martyr’.]

    [note: Minnesota law requires a person to have on their person the carry permit and ID. Pretti did not have this on him the day he died. Its a misdemeanor charge under Minnesota law and a $25.00 fine, but a misdemeanor is still a criminal offense.

    [note: on his 13 Jan incident he committed at least two federal crimes – interference and obstruction [aside from the crime of destruction of property]. But the odd part is the feds were giving the anti-ICE morons what they wanted at the time, they were leaving the area – until Pretti stopped them from leaving by his violent actions. On his Jan 24 incident, the day he died, he had conspired to interfere and obstruct and proceeded to do that thus committing at least four federal crimes -conspiracy to interfere, conspiracy to obstruct, and then the actual acts for both. But on both 13 and 24 Jan he also committed another crime and that was ‘possession of a firearm during/in commission of a crime’. So all together this makes at least seven federal crimes that Pretti committed – committing crime is not ‘1st amendment protected protest’ nor is it ‘2nd Amendment protected firearms activity’.]

    To add for above ‘Jan 13 – Jan 23, 2026’ – this time frame also includes Pretti’s Jan 17 violent attack on federal law enforcement – yes, more crimes committed by Pretti. This is the incident in which he got a cracked rib. There is video of this event, but its not been made public by the source.

    Pretti’s intentions that day were the same as they had been – conspire to and provoke and instigate confrontation, attack federal law enforcement, threaten violence upon and to shoot federal law enforcement, be unhinged and violent – and apparently that day to try to do ‘suicide by cop’, although it did not work out the way he planned because of the participation in the set up to video a confrontation with ICE but in the end he got want he had indicated and that was either ending his life or being the star of his teams set-up confrontation video or maybe both.

    His whole intention was one of provoking violent confrontation. Yes, we do know what Pretti’s intentions were that day.

  3. I’ve said this before , and I’ll say it again.

    You are obligated to be more polite to other people while carrying a gun, and you are obligated to de-escalate, any situation that you’re involved in.

    But these principles of gun ownership, and open carry are thrown into the toilet. Just because you disagree with the politics of the day.

    If you lay your hands on a police officer, you are responsible for what happens next.

    I don’t care if you don’t like President Trump. You’re irrational hatred of the president and your irrational hatred of the police WILL GET YOU KILLED.

    And fortunately, because everybody has a video camera on their person. Including the police.

    You will not be able to escape blame. EVERYONE is recording all your irrational protests. I Have no sympathy for this amazingly, stupid out of control, white male gun owner.

    Just as I have no sympathy for a black male gun owner, who does many of the same stupid things. That people on this website and others comment on all the time.

    Yes, I believe there is a racial component here. Because there are a lot of white people. Who are actually shocked that the police would kill a white person.

    With a gun who is acting out of control. And attacking the police.

    Yes, white liberal America. It’s true, you too can get shot dead by the police when you attack them.

    Just like the blacks.

    Yes that’s right I said it.

    1. Chris, some folk never learn that being nice is the best policy even if it doesn’t yield the desired results. Along with being nice following orders especially orders from law enforcement folk is the best and safest policy. In the case of Mr Pretti had he followed orders he may still be alive. Also Mr Pretti made some bad decisions that day when he could have decided to simply stay home, decided to not carry a gun or at least carry it legally under Mn law, or decided to not interfere with the agents. If one’s civil liberties are violated, it seems best to conduct one’s self in such a manner that living to complain another day in court etc would be the smart thing.

      1. Many gun websites have thoroughly documented the hundreds of open carry protests. At state capitals, and at the Republican and Democrat conventions.

        They were all peaceful.

        This fool Pretti demonstrated that he didn’t have the temperament to own and carry a gun.

        He was a liberal/leftist gun owner. They have a proven track record of being violent during a protest.

        And that has been documented as well on the gun websites.
        The law abiding do have a civil rights to arms.

        But that does not mean they should have them. Especially if they lack self control.

  4. Commie Mamdani kills 10 – where is the left wing and democrat politician outrage ?: ‘Warmth of Collectivism’ Fails: 10 Dead After Mamdani Orders End to Homeless Encampment Removals.

    ht* tps://twitchy.com/justmindy/2026/01/30/mamdani-homeless-encampment-freeze-to-death-n2424509

    1. A ‘desk pop’ is urban slang for the act of firing your weapon into the air while sitting down at your desk (or a table, and extends to include seated in your car or sitting on something, and has also been used to encompass just standing stationary and firing into the air in a crowd). But it also has a more ‘carnal’ meaning too dealing with a self-pleasuring sexual nature in public or at work.

    2. A ‘desk pop’ is urban slang for the act of firing your weapon into the air while sitting down at your desk (or a table, and extends to include seated in your car or sitting on something, and has also been used to encompass just standing stationary and firing into the air in a crowd). But it also has a more ‘car*nal’ meaning too dealing with a self-ple*asuring se*x-ual nature in public or at work.

    3. Reference from the movie “The Other Guys.”

      Will Farrells character is hazed as the other cops convince him every new recruit gets a celebratory “desk pop” where they can fire their gun from their desk.

      I never realized the movie was popular enough to justify memes but apparently it was and here we are.

      1. It actually originated in the military as a sort of gallows/dark humor thing to describe the accidental/unexpected discharge of a firearm in a non-combat setting like an administrative office/setting where people might be seated in a chair at a desk or table. It made it into urban slang and popularized in pop culture then into the movie ‘The Other Guys’ (and a few different unsuccessful TV shows) and memes, it still appears in some military veteran youtube videos where they will use the term in telling various story’s of their service.

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