By Deon Martin
For the better part of two and a half years, anyone tracking NICS background check data has gotten used to seeing red. Month after month, the industry’s most-watched sales proxy came in below its own recent history — not just below the prior year, but below the trailing three-year average, a benchmark that accounts for the post-2020 boom cooling off.
That streak, however, just broke.
The number that matters
Comparing each month’s NICS checks to the average of that same month over the prior three years, June 2026 posted a +6.12% gain — the first positive reading against the 3-year average since at least January 2024. July 2026 followed with +3.85%, making it two positive months in a row.
To put that in context: every single month from January 2024 through May 2026 — 29 consecutive months — came in below its 3-year average. June and July 2026 are the first back-to-back positive months in that entire stretch, and based on the data available, the first positive months of any kind in over two years.
(A methodology note: this analysis intentionally starts with 2021 data forward. The 2020 COVID-era spike distorted NICS numbers so severely that including it would skew any rolling average comparison for years afterward. Anchoring the dataset at January 2021 keeps the 3-year averages meaningful rather than chasing a pandemic anomaly.)
Look closely at that chart and the recovery didn’t come out of nowhere. September 2025 came within a hair of breaking the streak — down just -0.10% against its three-year averags. Essentially flat. It slipped back negative for the next few months, but in hindsight it was an early signal that the floor was closer than it looked. June and July 2026 are where that slow build finally broke through.
Why this matters more than a single good month
One strong month can always be noise — a calendar quirk, a promotional push, a single large distributor’s restocking cycle. Two consecutive positive months against a rolling three-year benchmark is harder to wave away. It suggests the comparison isn’t just “less bad” than a soft prior year — it’s outperforming the broader multi-year baseline for the first time since the post-pandemic normalization began.
Year-to-date, 2026 is running +3.91% ahead of 2025 through July and the gap against the three-year average has narrowed to roughly -73,878 units YTD — a fraction of the gap the industry was staring at even a few months ago.
Reading the tea leaves closely
Two months still don’t make a trend and anyone who lived through the whiplash of the last few years knows better than to declare victory too early. August through December will tell the real story, particularly with the holiday and hunting season buying patterns still ahead.
But if you’re looking for a signal that the long slide has finally leveled off — or is in the early stages of turning — this is the first data in two years that actually points toward that direction rather than away from it.
For manufacturers, distributors, and retailers who have spent the last two-plus years managing their way through contraction, June and July, 2026 may be the first real evidence that the bottom is behind us.
Deon Martin is a Sales System Analyst at Taurus Holdings, Inc.