The FBI defines active shooter incidents as those in which an individual kills or attempts to kill people in a public place, excluding shootings that are related to other criminal activity, such as robbery or fighting over drug turf. They include instances from one person being shot at and missed all the way up to a mass public shooting.
In 2022, the FBI reported that only 11 of the 252 active shooter incidents it identified for the period 2014-2021, or 4.4%, were stopped by an armed citizen. However, an analysis by my organization identified a total of 281 active shooter incidents during that same period and found that 41 of them – or 14.6% – were stopped by an armed citizen.
Academic articles dating back to 2015 have flagged similar problems, and even the researchers who collected data for the FBI admitted that “our data are imperfect.”
The FBI report compiled for the Biden administration for 2023 and 2024 contains worse errors. It asserts that armed civilians stopped none of the 72 active shooting cases it identified. The CPRC, by contrast, identified 121 active shooter cases – 45 of which were ultimately halted by armed civilians. Those incidents included eight cases that likely would have resulted in mass public shootings with four or more people murdered. …
Various factors explain this stark discrepancy in the data. Police departments do not keep separate records of active shooter incidents, which is at the heart of the problem. Crime researchers, including my organization, have to rely on media reports, which can be inaccurate, to identify and classify the incidents.
What’s more, the FBI does not compile its own list of cases but hires researchers at Texas State University who use Google searches to find news stories about these incidents. As a result, the potential for incomplete search results and difficult judgment calls by researchers means the FBI numbers are prone to error.
Between 2014 and 2024, FBI reports determined that armed citizens stopped 14 of 374 active shooter incidents its researchers identified – or 3.7% – with zero defensive gun use cases occurring in the two most recent years. Using the FBI’s definitions, CPRC identified 561 active shooter incidents, with armed citizens stopping 202 of them – or 36%. In addition, CPRC found 31 other cases where civilians intervened before suspects fired their weapons – incidents CPRC excluded because they did not fit the FBI criteria, though they likely prevented shootings as well.
Most significantly, during that decade, the FBI overlooked 42 incidents where civilians likely prevented mass public shootings.
M. Hunter Martaindale, a research assistant professor at Texas State University, was shown CPRC’s entire list of cases. He objected to just two of the incidents the CPRC identified that the FBI had missed – without commenting on any others. Even then, the two cases differed from the included ones only in that they lacked defensive gun uses. Texas State University declined to respond to repeated requests for comment.
— John R. Lott, Jr. in Unaccountable: The FBI’s Strange Refusal To Fix Key Crime Stat
For this purpose, relying on media reports found via Google is a horrible idea. Especially considering that lot of would be active shooters incidents dont make the news because no shots were fired because an armed citizen stopped it before it began, thus the story only resides in police reports.
“…have to rely on media reports, which can be inaccurate, to identify and classify the incidents.”
A non-incident thats a non-incident because the situation was stopped from becoming an incident is not news worthy enough to spend time on it. For example; the would be Walmart shooter two weeks ago was stopped outside the store by an armed citizen who held the they/them at gun point until police arrived, no shots were fired, but the local news 8 second blurp report only said a man (the ‘they/them’ would be shooter) with guns was arrested with no mention of the ordinary armed citizen that stopped what was going to be a mass shooting at Walmart.
Things like this happen all the time, ordinary armed citizens in public places stopping armed criminals (not all criminals are armed with guns) before they can harm others. And the vast majority with no shots fired because brandishing and a defensive posture did the trick and the bad guys flee or surrender, and the media simply doesn’t cover it because it became a non-incident by being stopped before it could begin and non-incidents are not worthy of media coverage.
Then also there is the issue of video. Sometimes an incident will happen and appear in a short blup in local broadcast news, but not national (non-incidents do not make national news) but not appear in print in an article somewhere on the internet where it can be found so doesn’t appear in searches via a search engine. It was a non-incident because it was stopped by an armed citizen before it began. So although it may have appeared in that short blurp in local broadcast news sometimes, those do not always make it onto platforms like YouTube and even if they did each video would need to be specifically located and viewed to discover it. So it remains undiscovered because no researcher does this unless they already know which local news outlet and which date and time for the video.
Clarification for “…Things like this happen all the time, ….”
Meaning frequently.
So overall the so called ‘research’ by Texas State University is useless because they simply search Google, and the vast majority of incidents that became non-incidents because they were stopped before they began by an ordinary armed citizen, simply do not appear in print or news video such that they show up in searches. The media doesn’t bother with the daily noise of common crime charges unless its an incident that’s sensational or political or very-special-interest in some way and incidents that are non-incidents because they get stopped by an armed citizen before they can begin to get serious are non-incidents to the media so they don’t report on them.
They appear in police reports as reported (if perp flees and not caught), or under charges such as ‘trepass’ or ‘attempted robbery’ or unlawful ‘posession of a firearm’ or some other common crime variety charge because the incident was kept from becoming more serious by an armed citizen stopping it. But the public never sees these reports, and it takes a researcher combing through them and each incident to pick out the detail of the armed citizen defender and Texas State University simply doesn’t do that.
There are two likely answers. First potential answer, FBI staffers don’t care. Second potential answer, FBI staffers intentionally alter the data to advance a civilian disarmament agenda.
Pick your poison.
Does it matter?
Nobody will trust the FBI, CIA or NSA or any of the NGOs they’ve been working with for generations after this Biden/Trump period in history.
Which is a good thing AFAIC because if we’re being truly honest with ourselves nobody should’ve ever trusted them from their inceptions and they’ve always been corrupt, partisan and self-serving institutions bilking taxpayers and getting people killed to further agendas nobody ever voted on.
You have to start your own list of armed self-defence. Like I did over 15 years ago. You can’t rely on the government for protection nor for accurate information.